QuickScan: Exports Up, Trade Relations Down

Exports have provided a helping hand to the Chinese economy amid sluggish domestic demand this year, in line with our assumption going into the year (see QuickScan: Can the External Macro Environment Prove to Be a Boon?). Shipments will likely remain robust in the coming months, with recent signs of improving export prices potentially offering an additional boost. That said, trade tensions look set to worsen further, as indicated by the latest readings of our China trade tensions indicator, which has risen sharply since mid-2023. Our latest QuickScan has more.

China’s export prices appear to be showing signs of a rebound after bottoming out in the last few months. Given the relation between import and export prices, there may be more room for prices to increase further in the coming months.