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Fiscal policy

A collection of 7 posts

DeepDive: Politburo Update July 2024

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DeepDive: Politburo Update July 2024

In our latest Politburo update, we take a look at the recent messaging on the property market, consumption, and monetary and fiscal policy, and address what we believe are considerable misinterpretations of recent monetary and fiscal policy communication in the market and financial press. We also discuss some tweaks in

DeepDive: Data Dump January 2024

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Data Dump Featured

DeepDive: Data Dump January 2024

China’s macro data remained uninspiring in December. Households maintained pessimistic expectations regarding job prospects and wages, while loan demand continued to be low amid persistently high deposit levels. While corporate loan growth was robust year to date, narrow money supply growth (M1) remained lacklustre. The market appears to be

DeepDive: Data Dump December 2023

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DeepDive: Data Dump December 2023

China’s macro data continued to underwhelm in November. While corporate loans have remained fairly robust year-to-date, monetary policy transmission appears to have had less of an impact. Household loans continued to point to consumer caution and total retail sales came in weaker than expected. Household deposit balances are still

QuickScan: Politburo Update December 2023

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QuickScan: Politburo Update December 2023

Last Friday, the Politburo gathered for its final economic session this year. We compare the messages of the meeting to previous ones to identify potential policy shifts. Overall, the meeting surprised somewhat to the downside. Our latest QuickScan has more. The Politburo fine-tuned its language on monetary policy to focus

DeepDive: Politburo Update July 2023

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Politburo Featured

DeepDive: Politburo Update July 2023

On Monday, the Politburo came together for its second economic session this year. As part of our regular updates on Politburo gatherings, we compare the meeting to previous ones to identify potential macro policy shifts. While we see the readout as a positive overall, we believe that caution is still

DeepDive: Politburo Update April 2023

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DeepDive: Politburo Update April 2023

Last Friday, the Politburo came together for its first economic session this year. As part of our regular updates on Politburo gatherings, we compare the meeting to previous ones to identify macro policy shifts and potential risks.

DeepDive: Signs of Stimulus

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DeepDive: Signs of Stimulus

With the abrupt lifting of zero-Covid restrictions in China, focus has now shifted to stimulating the economy. Our quantitative textual analysis in this DeepDive edition, which focuses on Politburo readouts between 2012 and 2022, identifies patterns in relation to fiscal and monetary policy to provide an assessment of where policies