Monetary policy - Interlect Analytics

Sign in Subscribe

Monetary policy

A collection of 13 posts

DeepDive: Signals From the Central Bank

Paid-members only

DeepDive: Signals From the Central Bank

In this DeepDive, we analyse the PBoC’s latest policy communication and macro outlook. Our text-based indicators still point to more stable macro conditions, supporting our cautiously optimistic view from mid-February. While our indicators continue to suggest an accommodative stance and more policy support ahead, the more hawkish policy communication

DeepDive: Politburo Update July 2024

Paid-members only

Politburo Featured

DeepDive: Politburo Update July 2024

In our latest Politburo update, we take a look at the recent messaging on the property market, consumption, and monetary and fiscal policy, and address what we believe are considerable misinterpretations of recent monetary and fiscal policy communication in the market and financial press. We also discuss some tweaks in

DeepDive: Changes in the Monetary Policy Toolbox

Paid-members only

DeepDive: Changes in the Monetary Policy Toolbox

Last week, the governor of the PBoC hinted at a number of potential changes to the central bank's monetary policy toolbox, including government bond trading, a greater focus on price-based monetary instruments, and changes to the definition of narrow and broad money supply. Our latest DeepDive has more.

QuickScan: Watching the Long End of the Curve

Paid-members only

QuickScan: Watching the Long End of the Curve

Last week, the PBoC drew attention to long-term bond yields in its monetary policy committee meeting. We think this policy communication, combined with recent macro data and our text-based indicators, suggests that headwinds to the recent bond bull market may be building. Last week, the monetary policy committee of the

DeepDive: Some Thoughts on the Stimulus Debate

Paid-members only

Monetary policy Featured

DeepDive: Some Thoughts on the Stimulus Debate

Our text-based data continue to show that policy will remain accommodative, though likely to a lesser extent than in previous years due to a more cautious tone by policymakers. Stimulus policies continue to focus more on the supply side rather than the demand side, albeit in a more subtle or

DeepDive: Data Dump January 2024

Paid-members only

Data Dump Featured

DeepDive: Data Dump January 2024

China’s macro data remained uninspiring in December. Households maintained pessimistic expectations regarding job prospects and wages, while loan demand continued to be low amid persistently high deposit levels. While corporate loan growth was robust year to date, narrow money supply growth (M1) remained lacklustre. The market appears to be

DeepDive: Data Dump December 2023

Paid-members only

Data Dump Featured

DeepDive: Data Dump December 2023

China’s macro data continued to underwhelm in November. While corporate loans have remained fairly robust year-to-date, monetary policy transmission appears to have had less of an impact. Household loans continued to point to consumer caution and total retail sales came in weaker than expected. Household deposit balances are still

QuickScan: Politburo Update December 2023

Paid-members only

QuickScan: Politburo Update December 2023

Last Friday, the Politburo gathered for its final economic session this year. We compare the messages of the meeting to previous ones to identify potential policy shifts. Overall, the meeting surprised somewhat to the downside. Our latest QuickScan has more. The Politburo fine-tuned its language on monetary policy to focus

DeepDive: Key Messages from the PBoC’s Monetary Policy Outlook

Paid-members only

DeepDive: Key Messages from the PBoC’s Monetary Policy Outlook

In our latest DeepDive, we analyse the PBoC’s Q3 monetary policy report and outlook for the macroeconomy going forward. While the central bank continues to be optimistic, our quantitative text-based indicators continue to show a more mixed picture.

QuickScan: The PBoC’s Optimistic Outlook

QuickScan: The PBoC’s Optimistic Outlook

In our latest QuickScan, we dissect the PBoC’s monetary policy report and outlook for the macroeconomy for the second half of the year. While the central bank paints an optimistic picture, there are a few catches. In its Q2 monetary policy report released last week, the People’s Bank

DeepDive: Politburo Update July 2023

Paid-members only

Politburo Featured

DeepDive: Politburo Update July 2023

On Monday, the Politburo came together for its second economic session this year. As part of our regular updates on Politburo gatherings, we compare the meeting to previous ones to identify potential macro policy shifts. While we see the readout as a positive overall, we believe that caution is still

DeepDive: Politburo Update April 2023

Paid-members only

Data Dump Featured

DeepDive: Politburo Update April 2023

Last Friday, the Politburo came together for its first economic session this year. As part of our regular updates on Politburo gatherings, we compare the meeting to previous ones to identify macro policy shifts and potential risks.

DeepDive: Signs of Stimulus

Paid-members only

Stimulus Featured

DeepDive: Signs of Stimulus

With the abrupt lifting of zero-Covid restrictions in China, focus has now shifted to stimulating the economy. Our quantitative textual analysis in this DeepDive edition, which focuses on Politburo readouts between 2012 and 2022, identifies patterns in relation to fiscal and monetary policy to provide an assessment of where policies