Property market - Interlect Analytics

DeepDive: Data Dump June 2024

In this Data Dump, we delve into China’s latest macro-economic data, with a special focus on the consumer and the housing market. While home sales jumped in the second half of June, we think this should be taken with a pinch of salt for now, as much of the

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Data Dump Featured

DeepDive: Data Dump March 2024

China's manufacturing activity data for March were robust, partially due to the effects of the Lunar New Year, while also reflecting a more favourable external environment and policymakers’ continued focus on supply-side stimulus. Growth in new household deposits has slowed year-to-date, which could point to some improvement in

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Data Dump Featured

DeepDive: Data Dump January 2024

China’s macro data remained uninspiring in December. Households maintained pessimistic expectations regarding job prospects and wages, while loan demand continued to be low amid persistently high deposit levels. While corporate loan growth was robust year to date, narrow money supply growth (M1) remained lacklustre. The market appears to be

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Data Dump Featured

DeepDive: Data Dump December 2023

China’s macro data continued to underwhelm in November. While corporate loans have remained fairly robust year-to-date, monetary policy transmission appears to have had less of an impact. Household loans continued to point to consumer caution and total retail sales came in weaker than expected. Household deposit balances are still

DeepDive: Key Messages from the PBoC’s Monetary Policy Outlook

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Pboc Featured

DeepDive: Key Messages from the PBoC’s Monetary Policy Outlook

In our latest DeepDive, we analyse the PBoC’s Q3 monetary policy report and outlook for the macroeconomy going forward. While the central bank continues to be optimistic, our quantitative text-based indicators continue to show a more mixed picture.

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Data Dump Featured

DeepDive: Data Dump October 2023

While China’s macro data showed some signs of improvement in certain pockets of the economy in September, the housing market has remained weak through October and financing conditions for SMEs appear tight. Our latest DeepDive has more. Corporate loan data for September remained robust, following a record high in

Money supply

QuickScan: Taking Stock of Money Supply Developments

In this QuickScan, we delve into the latest money supply data. While macro data have recently painted a more positive picture overall, the gap between narrow and broad money supply remains deeply negative, pointing to continued caution among businesses and households. We explain why we think that matters. The gap

DeepDive: The Latest Policy Moves in the Property Market

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Property market Featured

DeepDive: The Latest Policy Moves in the Property Market

Over the past few weeks, authorities in China have taken further measures aimed at stabilizing the property sector and encouraging more buyers to get back into the market. Our latest DeepDive looks at how cities that have taken similar steps since last year have performed so far and offers our

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Data Dump

DeepDive: Data Dump August 2023

In this Data Dump, we delve into recent macro data and developments in the housing market. July data weakened across the board, in line with the sluggish readings of our text-based macro indicators. Loan data for July were weak across the board, coming in at the lowest level since the

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Consumer

QuickScan: Data Dump July 2023

We take a look at recent economic data, the housing market and household sentiment. We remain cautious since we believe there are still too many drags on sentiment.

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Data Dump

QuickScan: Data Dump May 2023

We take a look at recent economic data and examine the drop in household deposits and slowly improving WMP yields.

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Data Dump Featured

DeepDive: Politburo Update April 2023

Last Friday, the Politburo came together for its first economic session this year. As part of our regular updates on Politburo gatherings, we compare the meeting to previous ones to identify macro policy shifts and potential risks.

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Data Dump

QuickScan: Data Dump April 2023

In this QuickScan, we take a look at recent economic data and the PBoC’s latest language on supporting consumption.

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Housing market

QuickScan: Nascent Housing Recovery

In this QuickScan, we provide an overview of China’s nascent housing market recovery in recent weeks.

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Risk

QuickScan: On the Lookout for Risk

In this QuickScan, we take a look at language on risk and oversight in meeting readouts from the PBoC’s monetary policy committee. The findings indicate that the focus on risk remains elevated, but did not change significantly over the years of the pandemic, including last year. The focus on

DeepDive: Household Deposits, WMPs and Home Sales

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Consumer Featured

DeepDive: Household Deposits, WMPs and Home Sales

Since our last DeepDive in late December, Chinese officials have announced further steps to stimulate the economy this year. In this DeepDive, we take a look at household deposits and how they are related to home sales and the performance of wealth management products (WMPs). We also provide an updated

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zero-Covid

QuickScan: Caution Before Optimism

While some market watchers have turned more optimistic on China’s market and economy, this optimism appears premature. Recent steps by the government to implement more targeted Covid control measures entail risks that seem to be underestimated, and business and consumer sentiment continues to be subdued. Barring any significant easing