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Risk

A collection of 10 posts

QuickScan: CEWC Doubles Down on New Economy

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QuickScan: CEWC Doubles Down on New Economy

This week, the Central Economic Work Conference continued to double down on the new economy, while largely reiterating last week’s Politburo stance on fiscal and monetary policy. Our text-based quantitative analysis filters out the prominent topics of the meeting and examines their implications. The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)

QuickScan: Politburo Update December 2023

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QuickScan: Politburo Update December 2023

Last Friday, the Politburo gathered for its final economic session this year. We compare the messages of the meeting to previous ones to identify potential policy shifts. Overall, the meeting surprised somewhat to the downside. Our latest QuickScan has more. The Politburo fine-tuned its language on monetary policy to focus

DeepDive: Takeaways from the Central Financial Work Conference

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DeepDive: Takeaways from the Central Financial Work Conference

Early last week the Central Financial Work Conference (CFWC) was held in Beijing. In this DeepDive, we provide a textual analysis of the meeting readout and a comparison to previous sessions going back to 2012 to identify changes and potential risks and opportunities.

DeepDive: Data Dump August 2023

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DeepDive: Data Dump August 2023

In this Data Dump, we delve into recent macro data and developments in the housing market. July data weakened across the board, in line with the sluggish readings of our text-based macro indicators. Loan data for July were weak across the board, coming in at the lowest level since the

DeepDive: Politburo Update July 2023

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Politburo Featured

DeepDive: Politburo Update July 2023

On Monday, the Politburo came together for its second economic session this year. As part of our regular updates on Politburo gatherings, we compare the meeting to previous ones to identify potential macro policy shifts. While we see the readout as a positive overall, we believe that caution is still

QuickScan: New Gov, New Role?

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QuickScan: New Gov, New Role?

Last week, the State Council gathered for its first executive meeting and plenary session since the formation of the new government. We examine the meeting readouts and compare them to previous administrations to assess potential changes in the council’s role and their implications.

QuickScan: Regulatory Changes

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QuickScan: Regulatory Changes

In December 2022, we wrote that we expected the financial sector to become subject to more oversight. This QuickScan provides an update on recent organisational and regulatory developments in the field.

DeepDive: Do the Private Sector and Foreign Investment Still Matter?

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DeepDive: Do the Private Sector and Foreign Investment Still Matter?

In this DeepDive, we take a look at whether China has really pivoted away from the private sector and foreign investment towards more statism.

QuickScan: On the Lookout for Risk

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QuickScan: On the Lookout for Risk

In this QuickScan, we take a look at language on risk and oversight in meeting readouts from the PBoC’s monetary policy committee. The findings indicate that the focus on risk remains elevated, but did not change significantly over the years of the pandemic, including last year. The focus on

QuickScan: Potential ramifications of common prosperity and dual circulation

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Common prosperity

QuickScan: Potential ramifications of common prosperity and dual circulation

Two themes that were prominent at last week’s Party Congress are common prosperity and dual circulation. Given they will likely have a material impact on the economy going forward, we have provided a brief overview of them and their formative context, and have provided a preliminary assessment on their